The move Inflation fell to 2.8% in April below Marchs 3.4%. Nga was seconded to the IMF Hanoi Office from the State Bank of Vietnam in 1997 and became a staff member in 2000. Rising consumer price inflation has been the key risk to consumer spending over 2022, and it has been eroding purchasing power and shifting consumer spending away from discretionary spending. BMI / Consumer & Retail / Vietnam / Thu 10 Nov, 2022. May 3, 2023 In 2021, the average inflation rate in Vietnam amounted to 1.83 percent compared to the previous year. Meanwhile, transport prices continued to fall (-3.94 percent vs -4.91 percent). Mays reading represented the lowest inflation rate since March On 24 May, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) cut the benchmark refinancing rate from 5.50% to 5.00%. He worked on a number of countries, including Russia, Luxembourg, Cyprus, Pakistan, Senegal, and Myanmar. The countrys target of keeping inflation at 4.5 per cent or even below 4 per cent in 2023 is reachable, he told a conference in Hanoi on January 4. The Hanoi Railway Transport JSC on July 16 announced that it is transporting the first containers of farm produce from Song Than station in the southern province of Binh Duong to Dong Dang station in the northern border province of Lang Son for transshipment to China. Global demand for Vietnamese exports is declining. ADB forecasts Vietnams economic growth next year at 6.3%, adjusted from 6.7% in the previous forecast, due to weakening of major trading partners. Looking at the details of the release, manufacturing Inflation came in at 2.4% in May, down from Aprils 2.8%. The annual inflation rate in Vietnam dropped to a 12-month low of 2.81 percent in April 2023 from 3.35 percent in the previous month, amid declines in transport prices, due to falls in gasoline prices. On the consumer side, the removal of domestic Covid-19 restrictions and the reopening of cross-border travel have injected new vigor into the service sector. Although the global context is still very unstable, recently, in a row, foreign organizations have raised their forecasts for Vietnams economic growth this year and growth prospects for next year. July 12, 2023 at 9:41 AM EDT. The State Bank of Vietnam set the daily reference exchange rate at 23,701 VND/USD on July 17, down 19 VND from the last working day of the previous week (July 14). Consumer spending in Vietnam will post solid growth over 2023, with real household spending growing by 7.3% y-o-y. Along with that, China's gradual lifting of the blockade order . In addition, inflation continued to slow for food & drink services (3.34% vs 3.58%), clothing & footwear (2.16% vs 2.22%), household appliances (2.11% vs 2.23%), and culture, entertainment & tourism (2.30% vs 2.49%). Logistics services are driving up added values of the domestic agriculture sector which has been developing quickly over the past years with an annual growth rate of 14-16%. IMF. 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Direct access to our data from your apps using any programing language. However, with the U.S. Federal Reserve poised to be more aggressive in its policy tightening, SBV may lean toward beginning its rate hiking cycle from the second quarter of next year or earlier if the growth momentum stays intact and external risks become less concerning. Retail sales in October 2022 (latest data available) indicates that retail sales in Vietnam grew 17.1% y-o-y, a sharp fall from the 36.1% y-o-y growth the month prior. Prof. Dr. Dinh Trong Thinh, Academy of Finance, said that in 2023, inflation of the world economy is forecasted to remain at a high level of about 6.5%, thereby greatly affecting the movement of commodity prices and inflation in Vietnam. The cost increased at a softer pace for food & catering services (3.62 percent vs 3.97 percent in March), housing & construction materials (5.20 percent vs 6.68 percent), textile, footwear, & hats (2.31 percent vs 2.51 percent), and education (5.98 percent vs 8.41 percent). National flag carrier Vietnam Airlines has rescheduled international flights on July 17 due to storm Talim, the first of its kind forecast to hit Vietnam this year. Source: National Statistics, Fitch Solutions, Source: General Statistics Office Of Vietnam, Fitch Solutions, f = Fitch Solutions forecast. Any comments or data included in the report are solely derived from BMI and independent sources. It allows API clients to download millions of rows of historical data, to query our real-time economic calendar, subscribe to updates and receive quotes for currencies, commodities, stocks and bonds. Annual core inflation, which excludes volatile items, eased to a six-month low of 4.56 percent in April from 4.88 percent in March. This bank commented, 2022 is a year of explosive recovery for Vietnam. In July the IMF forecast Vietnam's economy would grow by 6% this year, rising to 7.2% in 2023. The growth in consumer spending growth over 2023 will come as the wider Vietnamese economy recovers and growth figures return to a more stable and medium-term trajectory. Fitch Ratings analysts do not share data or information with BMI. I Email: [email protected]. dv01 provides true transparency in lending markets, and valuable intelligence on every consumer loan in the structured finance world, through a leading data intelligence platform. Stocks shot higher immediately after the numbers were released, as investors welcomed data that showed inflation slowing even faster than they had forecast. Extra color New Apple iPhone 15 Pro will be Deep Pink? Finally, consumer prices increased 0.01% in May over the previous month, contrasting the 0.34% fall logged in April. All rights reserved. API users can feed a custom application. Northern coastal localities from Quang Ninh to Ninh Binh have planned to evacuate about 30,000 people due to Talim, the first storm to hit Vietnam this year, which is to make a landfall on July 18. The cost advanced at a softer pace for food & catering services (3.58 percent vs 3.62 percent in April), textile, footwear, & hats (2.22 percent vs 2.31 percent), and education (5.70 percent vs 5.98 percent). Meanwhile, HSBC remains optimistic about Vietnams economic growth and forecasts that next year Vietnam will maintain the highest growth rate in the region. With the uncertain outlook from geopolitics and well-managed domestic inflation, the Vietnamese central bank can afford to keep its policy rate steady for now to support the recovery efforts. Supply chain issues continue, having first appeared when economies globally started to reopen in 2021, with consumers demanding products that they had little access to over 2020. In that context, ADB raised its forecast for Vietnams economic growth this year from 6.5% to 7.5%, while lowering inflation to 3.5%, down from the previous forecast. Additionally, the Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to place significant supply pressures on key commodities, especially food supplies, pushing up final market prices across a spectrum of consumer categories. As a result, HSBC has raised its GDP growth forecast this year to 8.1%, up from the previous forecast of 7.6%. June 2023 Data - 1996-2022 Historical - July Forecast, source: General Statistics Office of Vietnam, Vietnam Factory Activity Shrinks at Softer Pace, Vietnam June Tourist Arrivals Rise 312% YoY, FDI Into Vietnam Rises 0.5% in January - June, Vietnam Industrial Output Growth Picks Up, Vietnam Retail Trade Slows to 16-Month Low, Vietnam GDP Growth Accelerates to 4.14% in Q2, Vietnam Cuts Several Policy Rates to Support Growth, Vietnam Widens Currency Trading Band to 5%, Bulgaria Inflation Continues to Slow in June, Natural Gas Prices in Europe Extend Losses, Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate Slows in June, Saudi Arabia Industrial Output Falls Sharply in May. Aprils reading marked the weakest inflation rate since April 2022. Vietjet has officially launched the direct flight from Ho Chi Minh City to Haneda Airport in Tokyo, meeting the demands of people and tourists. The countrys gross domestic product (GDP) growth for 2022 was maintained at 6.5%. Fitch Learning develops the future leaders of the financial services industry and drives collective business performance. In Vietnam, inflation has been ticking upwards, reaching 4.3% y-o-y in October 2022 (latest available data). Get to know the business behind the products. Currently, you are using a shared account. On a monthly basis, consumer prices decreased 0.34 percent in April, the second straight month of decline, following a 0.23 percent drop in the prior month. In a recent article,Asia Times said that Vietnam is Asias best-growing economy in 2022. We do this by utilizing a best-in-class technology platform and blended learning solutions that maintain the personal element of development. We help them identify opportunities and quantify risks in markets where reliable information is hard to find and difficult to interpret. The Ministry of Transport has proposed increase ceiling airfares for domestic flight routes of over 500km by 50,000 250,000 VND after eight years of being unchanged. 4% of the Philippines. HCMC - Singapore's United Overseas Bank has forecast Vietnam's headline inflation rate at 3.7% in 2022 and 5% in 2023 due to multiple challenges and risks. Statista. This is a slight dip from the 7.5% y-o-y growth estimated for 2022, although we note that growth in 2022 came largely from a low base in 2021 (2.6%). BMI has a nearly 40- year track record of supporting investors, risk managers and strategists. To use individual functions (e.g., mark statistics as favourites, set The +0.2% rise in both the headline (0.180% to the third . Read the Article Blogs about Vietnam All videos about Vietnam All news about Vietnam At a Glance 2023 Projected Real GDP (% Change) : 5.8 Due to many challenges, it is likely to hit harder next year, especially after the effects of reopening fade and the impact of high inflation begins to become apparent. On the other hand, costs rose faster for housing & construction materials (6.49% vs 6.40%) and education (5.75% vs 5.70%). First, CPI (Consumer Price Index) on Wednesday (July 12). The Trading Economics Application Programming Interface (API) provides direct access to our data. Dr. Lam has proposed several solutions to control Vietnam's inflation under 4% over the 2021-2025 period, in line with the central bank's targe. Browse over 2,000 research reportsat the Fitch Solutions Store. White label accounts can distribute our data. Consumer Spending Outlook For 2023 Consumer spending in Vietnam will post solid growth over 2023, with real household spending growing by 7.3% y-o-y. It marked the lowest reading since February 2022, as prices dropped further for transport (-11.98% vs -8.94% in May) and post & telecommunication (-0.58% vs -0.51%). The year . The Hanoi Railway Transport JSC on July 16 announced that it is transporting the first containers of farm produce from Song Than station in the southern province of Binh Duong to Dong Dang station in the northern border province of Lang Son for transshipment to China. Forecast of Vietnams economic health in 2023, Tourists Forced to Cancel Hotel Reservations and Boat, YouTube introduces new features for Windows users, Hue installs AI cameras to control violations and, Commencement of two routes connecting Long Thanh airport. The zero-Covid policy in Mainland China has exacerbated this, causing disruptions/closures of factory production and manufacturing in the market, with a feed-through effect on the wider consumer market. Nga is in charge of monetary and external sectors. Trust Fund for Statistical Capacity Building. 41/GP-CBC issued on June 2, 2021 by the Authority of Press. The graphic below summarises these risks to the outlook over 2023. Source: CafeF Phuoc Hong Share on Twitter. The Ukraine-Russia conflict has also significantly impacted the global supply prices of key commodities, such as oil and gas, fertiliser, wheat, corn and barley. CONTRIBUTOR | Opinions expressed by contributors are their own. The IMF Press Center is a password-protected site for working journalists. In the macro report on the Asian economy published on December 22, HSBC said that Vietnam is likely to continue to be one of the outstanding growth countries in Asia. A strong El Nio weather phenomenon, bringing hot and dry weather, could add upside pressure on inflation via disruption of food supply later in the year, but to a limited degree because of high rice stocks and surpluses of a range of other crops.. %, aop), Vietnam: Industrial output falls by double digits in May, Vietnam: Inflation falls to over one-year low in May, Vietnam: Central Bank cuts the benchmark refinancing rate by another 50 basis points in May, Vietnam: Inflation declines to year-low in April, Vietnam: Decline in industrial activity softens in April, Vietnam: Central Bank cuts the benchmark refinancing rate by 50 basis points in March, Vietnam: Industrial activity deteriorates in March, Vietnam: Inflation falls to lowest level since August 2022 in March. AMRO forecast that ASEAN+3's growth would reach 4.5 per cent in 2024, reflecting the impact of weaker external demand on Vietnam and Singapore. Annual average inflation was unchanged at Aprils 3.7% in May. Stakeholders have forecast that Vietnams inflation rate in 2023 will only be around 3.5 per cent. "Central banks have really paused their tightening cycles. Vietnam - Inflation, Consumer Prices (annual %) 2023 Data 2024 Forecast 1996-2022 Historical Inflation, consumer prices (annual %) in Vietnam was reported at 3.1565 % in 2022, according to the World Bank collection of development indicators, compiled from officially recognized sources. f = Fitch Solutions forecast. This is supported both by growing domestic demand, as well as the expected recovery of international tourism. After touching the lowest level in nearly a year at 1.4% in February, inflation in Vietnam has been trending up to 2.86% in May, which is still below the State Bank of Vietnams (SBV) target of 4%. Francois joined the IMF in 2009 and was previously the IMF Resident Representative in Georgia. The updated report of the World Bank (WB) also notes that both the growth drivers of Vietnams economy, including exports and domestic demand, are slowing down, and consumption after the pandemic is slowing down signs of slow recovery. Please create an employee account to be able to mark statistics as favorites. Trucks loaded with Vietnamese lychees head towards China. 2022 International Monetary Fund. International Monetary Fund, International Financial Statistics and data files. Vietnamese policymakers can celebrate its excellent economic performance in 2022. That said, price pressures for housing rose. LICENCE No. Head Office: 96-98 Hoang Quoc Viet, Cau Giay District, Hanoi, Tel: (84 24) 6260 3760 - (84 24) 3755 2050, This website is developed by Hemera Media, South Korea & Japan the biggest importers of Vietnamese wood pellets, Finance ministry asked to continue fiscal policies to support businesses, PM sets up coordinating councils to boost regional connectivity and development, Long An targets 9% annual GDP growth by 2030, PM asks Bac Kan province to develop forest-based economy and tourism, HCMC striving to post annual GRDP growth of 8%, National airport development master plan announced. 2023 Projected Consumer Prices (% Change). National flag carrier Vietnam Airlines has rescheduled international flights on July 17 due to storm Talim, the first of its kind forecast to hit Vietnam this year. Advanced users can use our Python/R/Matlab packages. Use Ask Statista Research Service, COVID-19 deaths worldwide as of May 2, 2023, by country and territory, COVID-19 cases worldwide as of May 2, 2023, by country or territory, Coronavirus (COVID-19) cases, recoveries, and deaths worldwide as of May 2, 2023, Cumulative cases of COVID-19 worldwide from Jan. 22, 2020 to Jun. Vietnam: Inflation rate from 1987 to 2028* (compared to the previous year) [Graph]. However, several external risks are posing challenges to this outlook, including the Russia-Ukraine military conflict and its impact on commodity prices, resulting in inflation risks on domestic and external demand, global supply chain disruptions, policy tightening globally, and Covid-19 risks. Vietnam becomes a magnet for high-spending tourists from, Extending the pilot of submersible service in Nha, Cn o temporarily suspends sightseeing activities at relics, Ho Chi Minh Citys tourism sees threefold increase, Ford Escape was investigated for a serious error that caused the car door to open unexpectedly. Although 2023 will be a year of many difficulties and challenges, international financial institutions and organizations still assess that Vietnams economy maintains a positive momentum and that Vietnam is ready for rapid growth next year. The annual core inflation rate in Vietnam eased to 4.33 percent in June 2023 from 4.54 percent in the previous month and marking the softest rise since September 2022. GDP in the third quarter increased by 13.7% year-on-year thanks to a strong external sector and strong domestic demand. A forward indicator, foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows, pared back somewhat in May amid uncertainty from the Russia-Ukraine military conflict and elevated commodities prices. Vietnam's upbeat growth outlook is bucking the slowing trend elsewhere in Asia, with relatively subdued inflation that's also an exception to the general rule in the region. Sustainable Fitch delivers human-powered sustainability Ratings, Scores & Opinions, as well as Data & Research to serve the needs of fixed income investors. Our Country Risk team forecasts inflation to remain elevated for the rest of the year, ending 2022 at 4.6% before moderating down to average 3.8% over 2023. National Assembly (NA) Chairman Vuong Dinh Hue lauded the political resolve and efforts by the central province of Quang Tri, one of the fiercest battlefields during the war, in economic recovery and development, while addressing the 18th session of the 8th provincial Peoples Council on July 17. If you want to share your story, publish a press release or just want to ask something, contact Vietnam Insider via [email protected]. Economists have forecast Vietnams inflation will be kept at around 3.3-3.8% this year, similar to the National Assembly-set target of below 4%, adding that the pressure for 2023, however, remains huge and requir appropriate response solutions. HSBC forecasts inflation next year may reach 4%. VNA Thursday, July 13, 2023 09:41 Related News The index also includes: education (6 percent), health (5 percent), culture, entertainment and tourism (4.29 percent), beverages and tobacco (3.59 percent), miscellaneous goods and services (3.3 percent) and posts and telecoms (2.89 percent). IMF forecasts Vietnam's GDP growth at 7.2% in 2023 VOV1 VOV2 VOV3 VOV4 VOV5 VOV6 VOV GT VTC1 HD Skip to main content Private debt accounted for roughly 130.2% of nominal GDP in Q222, a relatively high figure for an emerging market like Vietnam. 29-May-23 Vietnam: Inflation falls to over one-year low in May Inflation came in at 2.4% in May, down from April's 2.8%. Thank you for registering. Latest data in nominal retail sales figures indicate a slowdown of the strong retail sales recovery trajectory that was seen in H122. However, HSBC still believes that domestic demand and the recovery of the labor market will be a positive light in this context. 272/GP-BTTTT DATED JUNE 26, 2020 BY THE MINISTRY OF INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATIONS, Copyright, VnEconomy, Vietnam Economic Association, Reproduction of any stories from this website in any form must be approved in wrting by VnEconomy. Download data. VnEconomy is not responsible for the content of external sites. While retail sales growth in October 2022 is the tenth straight month of recorded growth since November 2021, it also clocked the slowest growth pace since April 2022 as growing inflationary pressures erode consumption in Vietnam. The inflationary pressure on Vietnam in 2023 may not be high, said experts at a conference in Hanoi on January 4. Profit from the additional features of your individual account. Our teams are dedicated to connecting you with what you need, quickly, efficiently, and professionally. Although Inflationary forces will rise across 2023, strong showings in real income growth for Vietnamese consumers will give greater propensity for household spending growth. Rising prices of global energy and food as well as supply chain disruptions have contributed to the jump in Vietnams inflation. The Danish Lego Group has also started construction of a $1 billion factory in Binh Duong. Mays reading represented the lowest inflation rate since March 2022. All rights reserved. We do this by providing differentiated perspectives and in-depth expertise through Fitch Credit Ratings, Fitch Ratings Credit Research, Fundamental Financial Data, and innovative datasets, all backed by transparent methodologies, accessible analysts, and workflow-enhancing analytical tools. Your payment method will then be automatically charged 899.000 every 365 days thereafter. This has and continues to place pressure on manufacturers, with bottlenecks and consumer goods shortages emerging, which has fed through into supply-side inflation. Retail sales high-frequency data indicate while retail sales growth remains positive, growth has slowed as growing inflationary pressures erode consumption in Vietnam. International organizations are forecasting Vietnams economic growth prospects next year (Photo: Pham Nguyen). Additionally, governments have been very supportive of local labour markets resulting in significantly tight markets that have pushed up nominal wages. The current refinancing rate was expected to be kept at 4%, and the rediscounting rate at 2.5% to remain at these record low levels until at least end-2022. Data Portals and Tools. PU Prime: Empower Your CFD Trading with Unmatched Advantages, Dalat to have new pedestrian street and night market, How to book BLACKPINK concert tickets in Vietnam, Announcement of the official ticket price and stage map of Blackpinks concert in Hanoi, Aircraft near-miss incident verified on Noi Bai airport runway, Bamboo Airways CEO resigns after 2 months. FocusEconomics reports cover more than 130 economies and over 30 key commodities. After three decades of development, we have built a good reputation through our publications on economy, business and markets for Vietnamese and foreign readers. However, Le Thanh Nga from the Ministry of Planning and Investment said there remain factors putting pressure on inflation, such as fluctuations in the world market and rising prices for power, water, education, and healthcare. Logistics services are driving up added values of the domestic agriculture sector which has been developing quickly over the past years with an annual growth rate of 14-16%. Sharing the same opinion, the World Bank (WB) also forecasts that Vietnams economic growth this year will be the highest in the region, reaching 7.2% instead of 5.3% as forecasted in April. The State Bank of Vietnam set the daily reference exchange rate at 23,701 VND/USD on July 17, down 19 VND from the last working day of the previous week (July 14). As repo rates and interest rates begin to rise, so too will debt servicing costs.
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